Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s $124,500 high is unlikely to be the cycle top, with all 30 peak indicators still neutral.
Recent losses show new investors capitulating as seasoned holders are unfazed.
Holding above the 20-week EMA keeps Bitcoin’s path open toward $150,000.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) retreat from its record highs is fueling concerns over whether the market has already peaked for 2025. But the so-called “$124K top” is nothing but “noise,” according to analyst Merlijn The Trader.
30/30 indicators hint Bitcoin has more room to rise
In a Tuesday post, Merlijn stressed that none of Bitcoin’s 30 widely followed peak indicators have flashed red so far.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle tops have coincided with multiple “overheating” signals across well-known onchain tools.
For instance, the Puell Multiple, which spikes when miners earn unsustainably high revenues, is sitting at just 1.39, well below the 2.2 danger zone seen before past price peaks.
Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s price to its actual capital inflows, remains in neutral territory rather than at the overheated extremes that marked prior tops.
Seasoned BTC holders are unfazed
Onchain data supports the bullish view, showing a classic capitulation phase underway.
The newest Bitcoin investors, those holding BTC for less than a month, are sitting on average unrealized losses of around -3.50% and are now selling, according to data shared by analyst CrazzyBlockk.
Conversely, the broader Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort, which has held for one to six months, remains profitable with an aggregate unrealized gain of +4.50%.
“This is a bullish structural development,” writes CrazzyBlockk, adding:
“The market is purging its weakest hands, transferring their BTC to holders with a lower cost basis and higher conviction […] This shakeout, while painful for recent top-buyers, is precisely the kind of event that builds a strong support base for the next significant move higher.”
$70 million in BTC longs liquidated
Onchain analyst Amr Taha further argued in favor of a recovery next, citing the recent $70 million flush of leveraged longs following BTC’s price dip below $111,000 on Binance.
Open interest (OI) dropped significantly after the liquidation event. Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume plunged by around $1 billion, indicating aggressive sell-side dominance and capitulation among late buyers.
The next cluster of liquidity lies around $117,000–$118,000, which could act as a price magnet if BTC recovers in the coming days. Below, there’s limited support until around $105,000.
“With overleveraged buyers removed and open interest reset, the market is structurally healthier,” Taha wrote, adding:
“The absence of a short squeeze suggests latent upside potential, especially if BTC reclaims key levels and triggers short covering.”
Can Bitcoin price still drop $100,000?
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s pullback looks less like a market top and more like a classic bull market correction.
Since early 2023, BTC has repeatedly posted sharp drawdowns in the 20%–30% range before resuming its uptrend.
The latest 12% decline is comparatively shallow and still sits above the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave) near $108,000, a level that has acted as dynamic support throughout the rally.
A rebound from the 20-week EMA could put Bitcoin back on track to challenge its all-time high above $125,500, while keeping the door open for a broader rally toward $150,000, if not higher by 2025’s end.
Related: Strategy buys $357M in Bitcoin as price drops to $112K
Conversely, a breakdown below the 20-week EMA might result in a deeper correction toward the 50-week EMA (the red wave) near $95,300. This wave support has historically marked Bitcoin’s local bottoms during prior bull market pullbacks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.