Opinion by: Michael Tabone, Senior Economist at Coinpectra
On Saturday, June 21, 2025, the US hit Iranian nuclear facilities, causing a short-lived dip in the price action of Bitcoin (BTC). Bitcoin rebounded before its Sunday close to just under 1.27% of its price before the US military effort.
For 10 days in June, missiles flew and markets wobbled, but Bitcoin held its ground — not immune to war, but more stable than fear would suggest.
It is within human nature to want to find patterns, but correlation does not necessarily mean causation. Looking at the headlines, it is easy to assume that things are moving because of one news story or the next. Israel hits Iran. Iran strikes back. The United States drops 30,000-pound bunker busters. Bitcoin drifts lower to $98,286, and the headlines scream correlation.
Looking closer, however, the drawdown was orderly. No panic. No wipeout. And by the time the dust settled, Bitcoin had closed the week still above six figures at $100,760. The most severe military escalation in the region in years moved the asset just 1.27% in 24 hours. That is not a crisis. That is a market taking the news like it takes the weather.
Whether someone is a trader, a hodler or someone new to the cryptoverse, deciphering the effect of global headlines on Bitcoin’s price action can help separate the signal from the noise, and clarify what moves the market in both the short and long term.
The conflict, the charts and the causality trap
Sentiment is important to risk assets like Bitcoin, and BTC’s price action has been affected by the recent conflict in the Middle East. Famous gold bug and anti-Bitcoiner Peter Schiff asked on X on Sunday, “Other than [Michael Saylor], who’s buying the dip below $100K?” While BTC’s price dropped to almost $98K, there was enough market response to support going back above that psychological six-figure mark by the day’s close.
BTC and its USD trading price constantly fluctuate, and it is in this range that we can glean the most insight. When looking at the highs and lows of BTC price action from June 12 through Sunday, we can see that Bitcoin’s price closed above the range of lows for that day, showing signs of support at that current level, even if there was a multiday downward trend.
A downward trend makes sense when considering that the 200-day moving average for BTC is around $95,567. A 200 DMA is a key long-term trend indicator that often provides market support and resistance levels for assets if the price dips drastically in the short term.
Related: Bitcoin price risks sub-$100K dive after Trump confirms Iran strikes
Bitcoin does show movement in response to news about political conflicts. Still, it often finds stability rather quickly, and in a longer time frame, other headlines may have more of an effect on BTC’s price volatility.
Macro still holds the wheel
Going back to the start of 2025 and looking for headlines that moved the crypto market medium-term, we can find that the macro-news headlines from the United States seem to show more of a correlation than the recent Iran-Israel conflict. One of the largest BTC price escalations was the swearing in of US President Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with the price declining in the days to follow without an official word on the crypto industry.
On Feb. 12, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% and core CPI to 3.3%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s rate pause. On March 19, the Fed cut its GDP forecast to 1.7%, raised its unemployment projection to 4.4%, and raised its inflation expectations. On April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that new tariffs could raise inflation and slow growth. On April 10, CPI fell to 2.3%, helping spark hopes of rate cuts. On May 13, CPI remained at 2.3%, but core inflation stayed sticky at 2.8%. On May 30, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) dropped to 2.1%, and core PCE to 2.5%. During the Iran–Israel conflict, on June 11, CPI came in at 2.4%, and on June 12, the Producer Price Index (PPI) printed at 0.2%.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady but lowered the GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised inflation projections to 3%. This flurry of macro data moved Bitcoin over six months more than any single missile launch.
Even the June 16 peak at 108,915 dollars coincided with BlackRock reporting 412 million dollars in ETF inflows, which was capital rotation, not conflict premium.
Bitcoin trends historically well in major geopolitical events
Bitcoin has historically trended positively during periods of geopolitical turmoil. During major events like the US–Iran tensions in 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and now the Iran–Israel conflict of 2025, Bitcoin has shown upward movement or remarkable price stability. While it does not act like a traditional safe haven, it often behaves like an uncorrelated hedge in systemic uncertainty.
BlackRock’s 2024 report reinforced this, showing that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during several past geopolitical shocks. Their chart highlights Bitcoin’s unique behavior during crises: While equities dipped and gold oscillated, Bitcoin frequently trended upward. That pattern did not break in June 2025. It did not surge, but it also did not break the trend.
That matters in a world desperate for assets that don’t follow the herd.
Not immune to war, but not moved by it either
When Bitcoin moved during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, it did not respond to ideology. It was reacting to liquidation and flow. That is not the same thing. Traders sold into uncertainty.
Others bought the dip. ETF demand continued. The structure held.
The recent Iran-Israel conflict headlines tested Bitcoin’s resilience. It was a real-world stress test that did not result in technical breakdown or institutional flight. That’s not bullish in a hyped sense; it’s bullish in a structural sense.
The asset did not flinch when the world briefly tilted toward catastrophe, but that tilt is far from over. Black swan events can affect all asset classes and provide investors with potential positive entries. Gauging if the news effect will be short, medium or long-lived is a tricky question to answer.
Opinion by: Michael Tabone, Senior Economist at Coinpectra.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Coinpectra.