Key takeaways:
XRP is on course to finish August in losses, raising worries about a potential bearish continuation in September.
Losing $2.80 support could accelerate XRP selling, with technicals warning about a 25% drop ahead.
XRP (XRP) has dropped more than 22.30% in the past month after peaking near $3.66, putting August on track for a losing close.
Will the slump extend into September? Let’s examine.
Onchain data flags XRP price breakdown risk
XRP faces a critical test near $2.80 in September, according to Glassnode’s cost basis heatmap.
The largest cluster of supply sits between $2.81 and $2.82, where nearly 1.71 billion XRP were acquired. As of Friday, XRP was trading for around 2.88, just above the supply zone.
A drop below the given price range could trigger another wave of profit-taking as holders see their gains vanish.
The next big support in September should then be at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement around $1.73, a level that acted as a firm floor in early 2025.
XRP MACD fractal hints at possible 25% decline
XRP price technical indicators also warn of potential downside risk.
On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which measures shifts in trend strength, is on track to print a bearish crossover in September.
When MACD’s faster-moving blue line falls below the slower orange line, it signals weakening momentum, often a prelude to price pullbacks.
In past XRP cycles, similar crosses have marked the start of 50%–60% retracements.
For instance, in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025, XRP’s weekly MACD crossed bearish just after the price peaked.
All instances triggered declines that first tested the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).
XRP can slide toward the 50-week EMA at around $2.17, down about 25%, in September if the MACD fractal repeats.
The same downside target has popped up in multiple XRP analyses in the past, and further aligns with a key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support line, as shown in the chart below.
A decisive drop below the 50-week EMA and $1.73 Fib line afterward would confirm a bear market, in which XRP price could go as low as its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $1.19.
This pattern played out after the MACD bearish cross in September 2021.
At $1.19, XRP/USD would be trading near the average acquisition cost of current holders, according to Glassnode. While more than 90% of XRP holders remain in profit, this raises the odds of profit-taking if prices fall further.
The bulls must hold above the 50-week EMA to avoid this bearish scenario. Luckily, since July 2024, XRP has found support at the EMA before regaining momentum and climbing to new multiyear highs.
Related: XRP ‘distribution’ phase doesn’t change $20 price target: Analyst
Multiple analysts suggest a similar outcome could play out this time, predicting that this top-three cryptocurrency will reach at least $4 in the coming months.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Coinpectra.