Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, and its next move will either be a surge into new price discovery or a halt to make way for the oncoming altcoin season, said Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices reached $124,500 on Coinbase in early trading on Thursday, according to TradingView. The move added 3.5% to the asset on the day and pushed total crypto market capitalization to a record high of $4.26 trillion.
Bitcoin OG Samson Mow said there are now two possible paths for Bitcoin:
“We Godzilla or Omega up, suck all the oxygen out of the room, and altcoins drop 30-40%,” or “alt mania” peaks, triggering a massive sell-off as the “Bagholder’s Dilemma loses equilibrium,” which would see BTC dipping briefly before going up again when altcoins tank, he said on Thursday.
The Bitcoin maximalist couldn’t resist having another bash at Ether (ETH), as he compared market capitalizations and said, “But no matter what, it’s impossible that Ethereum is worth 4,600,000 BTC,” before adding, “this has to correct sooner or later.”
The Bagholder’s Dilemma
Mow discussed “Bagholder’s Dilemma” earlier this week when he speculated that Ether investors will soon start dumping and rotate back into Bitcoin.
He said that it will be challenging for ETH to break all-time highs because “the closer you reach that psychological level, the stronger the drive to sell.” The same premise doesn’t appear to apply to Bitcoin, according to Mow.
Ether has outperformed Bitcoin by a huge margin over the past 30 days, surging 58% while BTC has gained just 3.5% over the same period.
Altcoins are running too hot
The Jan3 CEO also said there will be more Bitcoin all-time highs, “but I think we will see a pullback because alts are running too hot now.”
Once the “altcoin mania” passes, Bitcoin will take off, “This is just how it’s always been,” he said.
Bitcoin dominance has dropped about 10% since late June, falling below 60% this week for the first time since January, according to TradingView. Sharp declines in Bitcoin dominance have been historical indicators that altseason is imminent.
The time for DeFi is now
Some industry experts agreed that investor interest in Bitcoin may cool, with decentralized finance potentially taking the spotlight.
“We believe ETH and DeFi assets will continue to outperform here, supported by the regulatory environment and the tokenisation of RWA (real-world assets),” Apollo Capital’s chief investment officer, Henrik Andersson, told Coinpectra.
Total value locked in DeFi is at a peak and rising quickly, which is fuelling DeFi revenue, he said, adding:
“We are entering a new paradigm where BTC is the low beta asset, its annualised 30-day volatility has collapsed to 23%.”
Director at LVRG Research Nick Ruck told Coinpectra that BTC may consolidate near current levels. “Declining dominance and rising altcoin volumes suggest an altseason is starting, led by ETH’s outperformance and speculative inflows into DeFi tokens.”
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