Key takeaways:
Bitcoin onchain metrics converge around $105,000, signaling a hidden risk zone.
Elevated open interest keeps BTC’s market structure at risk of sudden volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained in a ranging environment on Wednesday, after a brief retest from the demand zone between $112,000-$113,000.
At publication, BTC was attempting to break above the descending resistance trendline, which could lead to a rally to Monday’s highs at $115,700.
However, crypto analyst CryptoMe indicated a potential hidden risk zone for Bitcoin around the $105,000 level, an area that’s starting to look increasingly significant across multiple onchain metrics.
Using Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) analysis and realized price models, the analyst outlined key indicators that are converging on the $105,000–$106,000 region:
UTXO Cost Basis Histogram reveals a significant wall at $105,644, suggesting high onchain accumulation or realization at this price.
1–3 Month Holder realized price also hovers near $106,000, reflecting the average cost for mid-term holders.
Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price aligns closely at $105,350, showing the average acquisition cost for BTC held less than 155 days.
Although the data points to a potentially bearish setup in the short term, the analyst maintained a bullish outlook for Bitcoin over the medium and long term.
The possibility of a retest around $105,000 was viewed as a short-term scenario that could trigger sharp volatility and pose significant risks to leveraged traders in the derivatives market.
Likewise, data from Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin was in a precarious position below $117,000.
Related: Bitcoin may still have steam for $250K this year: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
According to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), significant resistance was around $117,000, where 634,051 BTC UTXOs were created, or last moved.
Below that level, a wide gap emerged, which stretched down to $108,000 with minimal support at $113,000. This gap indicated the potential for rapid downside movement if BTC were to lose its current price level, reinforcing the possibility of a trip toward $105,000.
Elevated OI signals market risks for BTC price
Trading platform Hyblock Capital highlighted that Bitcoin open interest (OI) remained elevated at $79 billion, suggesting that speculation in the futures market hasn’t fully reset.
This keeps the market fragile, especially with BTC price undergoing a correction from its $123,000 all-time high.
According to Hyblock, when OI remains at frothy levels while the Fear & Greed Index enters “Extreme Greed” territory, it historically precedes local tops and corrections.
This pattern, recently observed on July 16, led to BTC’s collapse to $112,000 from $120,000. The Fear & Greed Index has now reset to Neutral, but high open interest outlined price uncertainty.
Similarly, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said that futures market bearishness peaked at –7.5% on July 29, shortly after BTC hit a new all-time high. While that pressure has since eased slightly to –5.2%, the structural risks remain.
Adler warned that any sudden negative catalyst could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, quickly amplifying downside momentum.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.