Welcome to Trade Secrets — Bitcoin and Ethereum price predictions from top analysts, along with options data, sentiment analysis and prediction markets to determine what they can tell us about the months and years ahead.
Ether a ‘top conviction pick’ that’s set to go on mammoth 160% rally
Ether will skyrocket 160% from its current price of $2,570 before the end of this year, predicts crypto yield generation firm Tesseract CEO James Harris.
“We forecast ETH at $6,500 by end-2025, assuming continued growth in ETH staking participation, higher gas consumption from layer 2 applications, and no significant regulatory headwinds specific to Ethereum,” Harris tells Magazine. “Ethereum is one of our top conviction picks among large-caps.”
Harris points to the over $1 billion in inflows to spot Ether exchange-traded funds in the United States in June and the recent hard fork as bullish factors. “The Pectra upgrade has improved layer 2 scaling solutions, fueling ecosystem growth,” he said.
“With healthy institutional inflows and status as the most staked and utilised digital asset, Ethereum is on track for a run in H2.”
But 10x Research’s Markus Thielen offers a more sobering assessment.
“At 10x Research, we hold a moderately bullish outlook for crypto this month, driven largely by strong post-July 4 seasonality that could lift Ethereum toward $2,800 in the short term,” Thielen tells Magazine.
“However, we believe the ongoing lack of user activity remains a structural overhang for ETH, and the case for treasury adoption is far weaker than it is for Bitcoin,” he says.
As a result, his outlook is bearish for the remainder of the year. “We’ve maintained a bearish stance on Ethereum for over a year and continue to do so, setting a year-end target of $2,300,” he says.
“That said, potential developments in stablecoin adoption — particularly if they leverage Ethereum’s infrastructure — could shift the narrative. For now, however, we continue to favor Bitcoin as the higher-conviction play,” he says.
‘Strong sense’ Bitcoin will reach new ATH before July close
Unity Wallet chief operating officer James Toledano tells Magazine he’s got a gut feeling that Bitcoin will smash through its current all-time high of $111,970 by the end of the month. (Prediction markets agree, but options data suggests otherwise, see below).
“My strong sense, and that is all it is, based on current momentum, is that Bitcoin has the potential to reach a new all-time high by the end of July,” Toledano tells Magazine.
“If macroeconomic factors improve, equities continue to rise, and geopolitical tension abates, it is possible that it could pass $120K in July. But this is very optimistic,” he says.
Breaking the ATH requires a relatively small move, but a surge to $120,000 requires an 11.15% increase from Bitcoin’s price of $108,190 at the time of publication.
Toledano points to the nearly $5 billion in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past 15 trading days as a sign of strong institutional momentum — and a key signal of potential upward price movement in the near term.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold “firm and steady” amid the brief war between Israel and Iran is another promising sign.
However, crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades warns that Bitcoin needs to keep its momentum as it approaches its all-time high, as a drop back below $108,000 could trigger a bearish downtrend.
“You don’t want to see this deviate back below $108K again at this point,” Daan said.
Dogecoin lacks ‘bullish environment,’ 50% drop possible
Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at onchain options protocol Derive, sees a gloomy outlook for Dogecoin in the coming weeks, the ninth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
“Short term, I am quite bearish,” he tells Magazine. While he had initially warned of a “violent week of volatility” tied to former US President Donald Trump’s looming tariff deadline, the extension to August hasn’t changed his broader outlook.
“Memecoins like Dogecoin, which thrive on speculative optimism, tend to underperform in environments dominated by macroeconomic uncertainty.”
He says his Dogecoin outlook is further clouded by persistent inflation concerns and fading hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with odds sitting at around 5%.
“Assets like DOGE historically rip up during times of low rates, so muted projections on this front do not bode well for this asset,” he says.
Dawson also points to mounting signs of fear in the options market for Dogecoin.
“Implied options markets on DOGE are signalling significantly bearish sentiment,” he says.
“Put prices are significantly higher than calls, indicating that traders are willing to pay high prices to insure their DOGE holdings, signalling significant fear and uncertainty ahead,” he adds.
Making matters worse, retail interest is drying up. “Interest on Google search is down significantly since the last peak in February this year,” he says. “Since there is a strong relationship between interest and price appreciation on DOGE, the current levels of awareness do not suggest a bullish environment,” he adds.
Dawson believes it is likely Dogecoin will stay “under pressure” or trend sideways throughout July. He says a retracement toward $0.085 is still on the table — a roughly 50% drop from its current price of $0.17 at the time of publication.
However, he says Dogecoin may ride a “wave back into speculative favor.”
“Historical cycles suggest DOGE tends to lag behind BTC/ETH rallies, but can spike violently once meme momentum returns,” he explains.
What the derivatives markets are saying about Bitcoin and Ethereum
Onchain options protocol Derive founder Nick Forster tells Magazine that futures traders are pricing in a 40% chance of Bitcoin topping its $111,970 all-time high by the end of July. “Traders are levering up expecting BTC to reach new highs,” Forster says.
There is a 15% chance that Bitcoin keeps surging and taps $115,000 by the end of July.
There’s a 13% chance Bitcoin will drop below $100,000 before the month-end. Forster says this could become more probable if geopolitical tensions flare up again in the Middle East or if the FOMC raises interest rates in July. “But these seem quite unlikely at this stage,” Forster says.
As for Ether, future traders are pricing in a 12% chance of Ether topping $3,000 by the end of July. There is a 35% chance that Ether settles above $2,700 by the end of July.
There’s also a 10% chance Bitcoin surpasses $140,000 by the end of September and 12% chance Ether surpasses $3,500 by the end of September.
Santiment data: Bitcoin sentiment reaching ‘euphoric levels’
Santiment analyst Brian Q says Bitcoin crowd sentiment is reaching “euphoric levels” — a signal that could spell trouble ahead.
“Social media sentiment for Bitcoin is overwhelmingly bullish,” he says, noting that positive Bitcoin social media commentary has hit a four-week high.
History suggests caution at these levels as bullishness is often followed by short-term price corrections when “FOMOers get punished.”
“Be wary when crowd sentiment becomes euphoric,” he says. “Extreme greed is often a signal to become more defensive.”
Counterintuitively, the more muted sentiment around Solana offers opportunities.
“This lack of hype suggests it’s flying under the radar and may have room to run without the weight of crowd expectation, making it a potential ‘sneaky pick’ for a rally,” he says.
Solana is trading at $152 at the time of publication, down 48% from its January peak of $293.
Q says, “A fundamentally strong project with quiet social media channels can be an excellent opportunity to enter a position before widespread FOMO begins,” he adds.
What the prediction markets are saying
Prediction markets suggest Bitcoin will likely hit new highs this month, but confidence continues to dwindle for year-end bets on Solana, XRP and Ethereum.
Bitcoin has a 69% chance of breaking its current all-time high of $111,970 by July 31, according to crypto prediction platform Polymarket.
But Polymarket’s odds of other major cryptocurrencies reaching new all-time highs by the end of the year have declined since the June Trade Secrets Column.
Solana now has just a 22% chance of surpassing its previous peak of $293 by the end of 2025, down 5% from its odds last month, despite its price slightly rising 2.53% over the period.
XRP’s odds of hitting a new all-time high by year-end have also slipped 13% this month, down to 25%. XRP has yet to top its 2018 high of $3.40 and saw a 4.61% price increase over the past month.
Ethereum has 22% odds of breaking its all-time high of $4,878 this year, down 2% from its odds last month.
Ciaran Lyons
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