Welcome to Trade Secrets — Bitcoin and Ether price predictions from top analysts, along with options data, sentiment analysis and prediction markets to determine what they can tell us about the months and years ahead.
Bitcoin will have a ‘tougher’ time if doesn’t catch up to gold and stocks by year-end
Bitcoin is facing a critical two-month countdown before market sentiment could shift dramatically for the asset, warns crypto analyst Will Clemente.
“If Bitcoin doesn’t catch up to gold/stocks by EOY, on a risk-adjusted basis, it’s going to be tougher to make a case for it going forward as anything more than a diversifier,” Clemente said.
“Yes, its returns have outpaced from 2010, but there are no more base effects now,” Clemente said. gold’s market capitalization reached a record $30 trillion on Thursday, with the commodity having surged by more than 54% this year to a new all-time high of $4,357 per ounce. The milestone market cap peak means that gold is now 14.5 times larger than Bitcoin’s market capitalization, which is around $2.17 trillion.
MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said capital from the gold market must shift back into Bitcoin to get out of its “crucial resistance zone.” “Whether it is the rotation of money or whether it’s a shift from risk-off toward risk-on,” van de Poppe said.
JPMorgan analysts said that Bitcoin could still be undervalued by as much as 40% compared to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. Bitcoin is trading at $111,190 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. A 40% increase would mean Bitcoin’s price would be around $156,000.
Analysts expect a short-term bump in Bitcoin’s price
Prices may have tanked on Oct. 10, but sentiment across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana anticipates a recovery rather than further falls.
Crypto Tristan said, “I’m expecting a big bounce soon,” while trader Jelle said, “Little sideways chop, everyone gets progressively more scared of another leg lower — and then we bounce.”
Crypto exchange Gate’s chief business officer, Kevin Lee, tells Magazine that Bitcoin “is likely to regain momentum” and potentially stabilize between $120,000 and $125,000 soon.
However, economist Timothy Peterson has a more conservative outlook, telling Magazine it is likely we’ll see a three to four week “cooling off” period before Bitcoin resumes its rally:
“Perhaps at a slower pace than before.”
BitMine’s Tom Lee and BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, remain confident in their predictions that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by year’s end.
Almost nobody will see Ether’s price surge coming: Analysts
Ethereum’s price is also due to make a significant move according to subtle signals emerging on the price chart.
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto said, a “bullish divergence could be playing out.” This indicator signals that bears are losing power as the price falls to a local low but the oscillator does not. Ethereum’s price is down 11.10% over the past 30 days, trading at $4,039.70 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Analyst SinaOsivand said, “Ethereum is quietly stabilizing while funding rates stay calm.” “The structure looks ready for a leg up — potential target around $4,300 before the next altseason,” SinaOsivand added.
“It’s starting to move on its own path away from Bitcoin,” he said.
Trader Mister Crypto said, “Ethereum is about to enter the distribution phase” and “almost nobody will see it coming.”
Technical analyst Crypto Caesar highlighted the $4,500 to $4,800 range on the ETH price chart, and said, “We need to get back into this range asap.”
The last time that Ether traded within that range was Oct. 10, before US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on China spooked the crypto market.
Solana might be the ‘next big breakout story’
Solana’s price may have reached its local bottom along with Ethereum, according to legendary trader John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator.
“Gonna be time to pay attention soon, I think,” Bollinger said, explaining that the assets may have reached their potential “W” bottoms, a bullish reversal signal indicating potential upward price movement.
Solana is trading at $189.87 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Solana’s supply is being absorbed around this price level, according to crypto trader Yimin X, who says that Solana is “coiling inside a tight ascending channel.”
“SOL might be the next big breakout story,” Yimin X said. “Each retest of the lower trendline has found buyers faster, not slower,” he said.
If this structure is an accumulation pattern, Yimin X believes the next leg could be 50% higher, potentially sending Solana back toward its January all-time high near $290.
Meanwhile, crypto trader Alex Clay drew parallels between Solana’s current setup and Binance Coin’s (BNB) recent rally, pointing out its 13-day surge of 33% earlier this month, which propelled BNB to new highs of $1,293.
“SOL will repeat the BNB scenario,” Clay said, adding that “breakout is programmed.”
XRP seeing ‘green enter the market’ amid Ripple Labs interest and ETF decision
Crypto traders have become increasingly bullish on XRP in recent weeks, as Ripple Labs signaled plans to purchase $1 billion worth of the token and key ETF deadlines are looming.
“We are currently seeing some green enter the market, and we have been saying that this is the moment the bulls are gonna get back into the fight,” DustyBC Crypto told his 227,000 X followers on Monday.
The trader also noted that upcoming decisions on US-based XRP ETFs, expected to happen before Oct. 25, could potentially significantly influence the token’s price.
Currently, seven spot XRP ETF filings are under review by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Another factor that has been of interest to XRP traders is Ripple Labs reportedly planning to raise roughly $1 billion through XRP sales to establish its own digital-asset treasury, combining newly acquired tokens with part of its existing holdings.
XRP is trading at $2.53 at the time of publication, down 4.29% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Traders expect the level to hold to some extent, with nearly $150 million in long positions facing liquidation if XRP drops to $2.30, according to CoinGlass.
Option traders are bracing for ‘sustained turbulence’
Option traders are preparing for a period of “sustained turbulence,” according to Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at onchain options protocol Derive. He warns that crypto market sentiment could deteriorate further in the coming weeks.
“Volatility is heating up across BTC and ETH as markets grapple with fears of a renewed US-China trade war and a bursting AI bubble,” Dawson tells Magazine.
He points out that the 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin has surged to 45%, up from 30% a month ago, while Ethereum’s has climbed from 57% to 72% over the same period.
Dawson claims that traders are increasingly bracing for “sustained turbulence.” He says the major price swings seen earlier in October, along with mounting macro uncertainty, have shaken confidence across the wider crypto market.
“Despite BTC’s steady price performance, traders are clearly hedging against the risk of deeper drawdowns,” Dawson says.
Bullish panic after Trump’s tariffs — Santiment
Retail traders went into full-blown panic mode after US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports on Oct. 10, according to sentiment platform Santiment.
The platform said that crypto market fear spiked to its highest level of the year, the day after Trump’s tariff announcement.
However, Santiment says these moments of panic have consistently signaled strong buying opportunities for Bitcoin. According to the data, there have only been three other days this year with similar levels of fear. The first one was back in April, and Trump’s global tariff comments also triggered it.
After Bitcoin experienced some volatility, the asset’s price rebounded 26.5% in just 19 days.
“In every one of these cases, FUD took over due to world events that were (in hindsight) overreacted to from a market perspective,” Santiment said.
“Retail’s emotions often dictate that Bitcoin’s and altcoins’ prices are about to do the opposite. Smart traders scooped up more while the crowd was in panic on each of these dates,” Santiment added.
Other sentiment indicators show that crypto traders haven’t fully recovered their confidence since the tariff announcement rattled the market.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, has fallen significantly since Trump announced the tariffs on Oct. 10, when it was sitting at a “Greed” score of 70. It is now at a “Fear” score of 29.
Retail investors are keeping cautious, according to CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which is reading a “Bitcoin Season” score of 26, down 25 points from Oct. 9’s “Altcoin Season” score of 51.
Ciaran Lyons
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